Islamic State
(Isis) in Libya has become a threat to all of Europe and western
military intervention may now be required, but only so long as the
Libyans can first form a coherent national government, Sir Peter
Ricketts, David Cameron’s former national security adviser, has warned.
Ricketts, who has just ended a stint as UK ambassador to France, said
there was a “very remote” chance UK combat forces would be used, and
said airstrikes on their own would be of no use.
Western powers have been considering whether any military
intervention, such as training Libyan security forces, can help prevent
Isis gaining a permanent foothold in the oil-rich country.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Ricketts described Libya as an ungoverned
space. “It is a threat to all of us in Europe because Isis is moving in
so there is a case to do everything we can to help them produce
stability in Libya,
but they have got to do it. The likelihood of British combat forces
being deployed seems to me very remote, but supporting the Libyans to do
a more effective job in governing their own space, I can certainly see a
case for that.”
UN-led efforts to form a national unity government in Libya following the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 have foundered. Two rival administrations have formed
and militias have proliferated across the country. The UN has so far
failed in efforts to reconcile differences between the governments,
which are based in Tripoli and Tobruk.
Discussions are continuing in the west as to whether a force could be
assembled to help defeat Isis, but the lack of a unity government is
allowing Isis space and time to expand.
The number of Isis fighters in Libya has reportedly increased
to 5,000. The group currently holds sway in the port of Sirte, and is trying to move into the Libyan oilfields.
Isis is said to be under growing financial pressure in Iraq as it
loses access to oil, so Libya would be a major strategic prize for the
group.
The UK foreign affairs select committee has been examining the merits of the western intervention in 2011 and what the west could have done to prevent the country collapsing into chaos.
Ricketts, who was national security adviser at the time, said the
intervention was right “because it stopped a bloodbath in Benghazi and
it gave the Libyan opposition groups a chance to get together to form a
coherent government with a coherent security structure and basically
reinvent their country. They failed to do that, which is a great
disappointment.”
He
also ruled out airstrikes. “We can only do anything if there is an
emerging security structure that we can support, because we cannot bring
security to Libya ourselves.”
Martin Kobler, the UN special representative in Libya, has expressed
his frustration at the disputes between the groups, telling Der Spiegel
they “discuss commas in agreements and bring legal arguments into play.
Isis does not discuss commas, it is capturing new territory each day. If
things keep going like this they will soon capture the oil terminal Ras
Lanuf. But the awareness that people need to be coming together to
counter the threat is still lacking. My fear is the political process is
not going to go as fast as the military process.”
The UK ambassador to Tripoli, Peter Millett, has also warned that the
number of gunmen had multiplied since the end of the war because the
Libyan central bank has been forced at gunpoint to fund the militias.
“There is a real problem with the proliferation of militias,” he said.
“The fact is that all main militias are still paid for by the central
bank. Bored young men can join a militia, then they have a salary and
something to do.”
Asked why the central bank was continuing to fund the different
militias – including factions who are at each other’s throats – Millett
said: “I am told that in 2012, a gun was held to the minister of
finance’s head and he was told ‘sign that cheque’. They were told that
the easiest thing was simply to buy off the militias.”
Estimates of the number of militia men in Libya have gone from around
30,000 at the time of the anti-Gaddafi revolution to as high as 140,000
now.
Millett said “If you do not have a government, what can you do about
Isis? I do not think we have an answer. If the whole thing collapses we
will be into a very difficult situation. It will be difficult to deal
with Isis without a formal request from the Libyan government.”
Jeremy Corbyn has written to Cameron seeking assurances that no
British troops will be deployed in Libya without the agreement of the
Commons. It is possible the UK government could argue that the troops
were not being sent in a combat role and the relatively recent tradition
of seeking Commons prior approval does not apply.
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