Angola's president says he's giving up 37-year rule. Should we believe him?

After 37 years in power, Angola’s president José Eduardo dos Santos has announced that he will be stepping down in 2018. “I took the decision to leave and end my political life in 2018,” he told a meeting of the ruling party, the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola. On the face of it, this is a momentous moment in Angola’s – and Africa’s – postcolonial history. There are few leaders like Dos Santos who have stepped down voluntarily, and his move could show other so-called “presidents for life” that it is possible to voluntarily depart from the presidential palace. But most reactions to the news have been cynical. This is not the first time Dos Santos has announced his departure from the political stage, only to backpedal at a later date. In 2001 the president promised not to stand in the next presidential elections, only for elections to be delayed until 2008, by which time Dos Santos had conveniently forgotten his earlier pronouncement. There are also questions about the timing of the announcement, which comes in the midst of economic turmoil brought on by the falling price of oil. The crisis is a clear indictment of the Dos Santos leadership: he bears responsibility for the fact that Angola has failed to capitalise on its enormous oil wealth. We don’t believe it because it is not the first time he says that… He is still there, so let us wait and see Alcides Sakala, Unita MPLA supporters attend a rally for Angolan president Jose Eduardo dos Santos in Kilamba Kaixi, 2012. Facebook Twitter Pinterest MPLA supporters attend a rally for Angolan president Jose Eduardo dos Santos in Kilamba Kaixi, 2012. Photograph: Stephane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images Then there’s the question of a successor: if not Dos Santos, then who? Advertisement There is no obvious candidate to fill Dos Santos’s ageing boots, although vice president Manuel Vicente and Dos Santos’s son, Jose Filomeno, are likely contenders. But neither is likely to usher in dramatic change – at least not of their own volition. “None of these people will find favour with an increasingly restless public, or with MPLA old-timers, who will resent a political newcomer being appointed simply because of connections with the veteran leader. So two years hence, the president might again present himself as the least bad option. But, at age 73, he must know the question cannot be put off forever,” Angola expert Justin Pearce told the BBC. Angola’s main opposition, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita), is just as sceptical. “We don’t believe it because it is not the first time he says that… He is still there, so let us wait and see. On the other side, it’s true Mr Dos Santos is tired because he has been in power for [37] years and it’s quite a lot of time,” spokesperson Alcides Sakala told Voices of Africa. Will he leave? If Dos Santos does leave, his departure will have significant ramifications for Angola. Key to Dos Santos’ regime has been his skilful manipulation of friend and foe alike. Any successor will struggle to match his political might, greatly increasing the potential for upheaval and unrest within the ruling elite. Forty years on from independence, Angola still lacks freedom Rafael Marques de Morais Read more The identity of Dos Santos’s chosen successor is also key. Dos Santos would be wise to recall the example of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, whose blatant grooming of his son Gamal Mubarak for the presidency played a key role in sparking the social unrest which led to the Egyptian revolution in 2011. Not that stage-managed successions have to be a backward step. Sometimes, changing the status quo forces a rethink from within the political establishment that can pave the way for reform. Take Cuba, where Raul Castro’s economic policies are markedly more open than his brother Fidel’s ever were, despite being rooted in the same orthodoxy. At this point, however, such a positive outcome seems unlikely. Angola is still very much Dos Santos’s baby, and perhaps it would be unwise to predict on any kind of change until the 73-year-old has actually been escorted out of the presidential palace — voluntarily or otherwise. Thanks for reading.

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