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</script>Tonight in Las Vegas, Irish star Conor McGregor was scheduled to fight for history. Two UFC titles around one waist. That was the 27-year-old’s intention as he pushed his promoter, Zuffa, to a place it had never gone before. McGregor captured the featherweight belt from long-reigning José Aldo in 13 seconds late last year. It was an incredible thing to witness – timing, speed and power meeting a moment – and a massive moneymaker for the UFC and Mystic Mac, who has called many of his shots. Off the strength of his results and charisma, UFC heeded McGregor’s call and matched its 145lb champion against its 155lb champion, Rafael dos Anjos, with the lightweight belt on the line.
It looked very much like McGregor asked for and received the toughest challenge he could find, a highly admirable trait among champion prizefighters, and then the rock steady Brazilian cracked his left foot on the knee of a sparring partner 15 days before the 5 March pay-per-view contest at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
One day after news broke that Dos Anjos couldn’t compete, the UFC nimbly salvaged McGregor’s spot on the card by announcing he would fight Nate Diaz 25lbs above his championship weight. Diaz has already fought at welterweight several times, and is the naturally bigger guy. Unquestionably the switch in opponent remains a significant test for McGregor, who is likely to be next to challenge welterweight champion Robbie Lawler, possibly this summer at UFC 200, if action falls in his favor on the weekend. If it does not, McGregor may have to forget scaling weight classes for a stretch and retreat to featherweight, where a hard weight cut once again becomes an issue.
“People who don’t take risks will never climb to that next level,” McGregor said. “I take risks all the time. Every single fight I take risks.”
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</script>As with most of McGregor’s contests, much of the outcome can be pinned on the mental state of things. He tried to force himself on Diaz since the inception of this fight and the veteran from Stockton, California, has generally had one response: let’s fight. [Bleep.]
There’s not much on the mental warfare front that Diaz hasn’t encountered over the course of his career. At the age of 30, Diaz’s experience and prevailing attitude about things should buffer him against McGregor’s mind games. It’s hard to know if walking out of a live television interview on CNBC was Diaz’s reaction to McGregor’s antics, if he simply didn’t give a damn about what they were talking about and decided to leave, or if the pressure of the moment is getting to him. In the cage, Diaz – McGregor’s so-called “gazelle” – should feel no need to rush out the gate. McGregor responds amazingly well when opponents try to force themselves on him. When Diaz is on, he establishes momentum over the course of a fight. He should make the Irish lion come to him in the early stages. For all his earned reputation as a scrapper, Diaz isn’t opposed to biding his time in dissembling the opposition. He certainly presents different tactics for McGregor to interpret than a steamroller like Dos Anjos, who easily decisioned Diaz at 155 the end of 2014.
Diaz relies on his length and output, and at his best mixes stinging punches with a dangerous submission game. If there’s a clear advantage for Diaz in the contest it comes on the floor. McGregor tapped twice to submissions in 21 fights, and Diaz, the bigger, stronger grappler, has proven capable of catching anyone.
Asked on Thursday if he would go after McGregor (19-1) on the ground, Diaz (18-10) kept it simple: “We’re going to fight and find out.”
That suits McGregor fine. The featherweight champion explained he’s eager to test Diaz’s hittable yet sturdy chin, and can be expected to attack the taller fighter’s “soft” body.
McGregor brings heavy hands, though there’s some mystery if the additional weight will help or hurt him in this department. Without a weight cut, so long as he stays loose – one of his best attributes as a fighter – McGregor’s speed and technique should produce damaging shots.
In his last five fights the 5ft 8in Irishman made a sizable living eating up opponents around his height – Aldo 5ft 7in; Chad Mendes 5ft 6in; Dennis Siver 5ft 7in; Dustin Poirier 5ft 9in; Diego Brandao 5ft 7in. The only decision win of McGregor’s career came against 5ft 11in Hawaiian Max Holloway in 2013 – McGregor tore his ACL in that fight – so the challenge here against the 6ft Diaz shouldn’t be dismissed.
Unknown in this instance, against a taller and rangier opponent, is how capably he’ll find the distance to land with power. McGregor throws a long left straight, but it may not be long enough and that could prompt him to reach. He’ll need to close the gap and this is where Diaz, despite McGregor’s assertion that the lanky boxer fights like a novice, can pepper away with jabs and short hooksConor McGregor and Nate Diaz nearly come to blows at UFC 196 press conference – video" data-video-poster="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2016/3/4/1457090165523/KP_1821506_crop_640x480.jpg" data-video-provider="@DarrMurphy / Twitter">
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After gloating on fight week of eating as he pleased, of enjoying brunch in the back of his Rolls-Royce, McGregor might say he has it figured out all the time.
“It’s certainly been enjoyable,” McGregor said. “It’s been different to wake up and have the choice of food and to be able to eat out. This feels like spar to me. This will feel like a spar to me when I go in on Saturday night. There’s no adjustment. I’m just going to be who I am.”
Women’s UFC bantamweight champion Holly Holm (10-0) many not lurch to the horizon like McGregor, but she’s reached the highest levels too. The talented and steady Holm became the only fighter defending his or her title on Saturday when Dos Anjos fell aside, and yet McGregor’s star has emitted most of the light ahead of UFC 196. Holm might have otherwise encountered more attention in the lead up to the first defense of the belt she ripped from Ronda Rousey in December, and she’s glad to keep things simple.
If the fighter who tuned up Rousey in Australia shows up against Miesha Tate, if Holm was truly holding back in previous UFC bouts against the likes of Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau, then the 29-year-old challenger should be in for a rough night.
“I’m a messy fighter,” Tate said with a smile. “I will do whatever it takes to win this fight. If I don’t allow her to be at just that perfect range to land those perfect strikes this could be a very ugly fight for her.”
Tate (17-5) is a well prepared mixed martial artist and adept grapple but she has relied on her resilience on too many occasions, and over time the ability to endure punishment becomes an indication of a limited competitor more than anything else. That would seem to be the case here, especially against the trained-up 34-year-old champion from Albuquerque, New Mexico. Considering Holm’s success handling previous titles during her time as a boxer and kickboxer, this wouldn’t appear to be too big a moment for her. Thanks for reading.
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